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12:08 AM, Apr 19, 2023 toot this
After Putin
I don't think the global economy could possibly benefit more from anything, than from the end of the rule of Vladimir Putin.

The defeat of his forces(which will happen this year) will be the end of his regime, as it will signal the hollowness of his threats. No country(or rogue oblast within his own federation) will have any reason to fear him, and he will have nothing to bargain with at any negotiation table anywhere. Even now, the only might he has left is in his loyalist central police and Moscow-based national guard. He is weak, and after he sends another couple hundred thousand farmers and factory workers charging headlong into their deaths, I think the sharks circling him will strike.

The end of his rule, regardless of who usurps him, will produce a fragmented, fractured Russia where, for better or worse, it will take decades to re-establish relevance on the world stage. It will take longer than after the fall of the Soviet Union, because even then, they had at least their military might to keep them relevant. They don't have that now, and they absolutely will not after Ukraine defeats them.

World trade will resume, and supply chain issues will evaporate. Fossil fuels will become much less important over the next few decades, effectively de-clawing the agitating forces in the Middle East.

An era of peace and prosperity such as no living person has ever known will take hold, and be the rule for at least a generation-- the end of which may see the peace and prosperity further advanced, with the realization of the commoditization and widespread deployment of fusion power, which itself will present such staggering possibilities to humanity that it is impossible to predict how far-reaching it will be.

The sun will come out after the end of the war in Ukraine.

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