3/19/2003 6:02 AM
An ultimatum has been presented to Saddam and his sons, in Iraq. He is faced with the choice of stepping down from power, or suffering a massive invasion. I have laid out what I think the main possibilities are:

Nobody attacks Saddam(nothing changes):

• Bad##Weapons inspections taper off to nothing, with continuously inconclusive results; Saddam's rule continues, in defiance of the West, at the cost of Iraqi lives and freedom, and the stability in the region
  
  
• Good##Nobody in the West gets hurt, and the horrible things happening in the middle East will return to CNN.

Somebody attacks:

• Good##Saddam's government falls, and a chance for stability and prosperity occurs
  
  
• Bad##Thousands die in Western assault on Iraq, both in collateral damage, and in human sheilds set up by Saddam

The Unknowns:

• Maybe(the bad)##N Korea will put up or shut up, France, Germany, Russia break ties with USA, UK, Spain; widespread terrorist activity; chemical/nuclear attack on the West; Saddam torches oilfields, starts lobbing heavy explosives at Israel, Turkey, Kuwait
  
  
• Maybe(the good)##Iraq and Afghanistan become economic and social models for the region; Success reunites the West

We'll just see which way it all goes.